Content. The course will provide understanding of macroeconomic forecasting methods. Hands-on examples and training of economic forecasting using real data and the econometrics software EViews will be provided
Relevance. Determining the state of the economy in the business cycle and having expectations of the future path of the economy is of high importance for the design of monetary and fiscal policies, but it is also relevant for the decisions of companies and households.
Key outcomes. By the end of the course, students will be able to
- interpret economic data
- understand the components of economic time series (trend, cycle, irregular component)
- generate macroeconomic forecasts with time series models, VAR models, ECMs, structural macroeconomic models
- understand the merits and limitations of economic forecasts
- evaluate different forecast methods
Grading will be based on the total score out of 100, in line with CEU’s standard grading guidelines
1 Interim practical exercise 30 %
2 Final practical exercise 60 %
3 Presence and activity 10 %
1 (30 %). Interim practical exercise: in the interim practical exercise, students will examine macroeconomic time series and create forecasts of these time series with different methods.
2 (60 %). Final practical exercise: at the end, students are expected to analyzes the properties of real-world data, generate forecasts with more methods than in the interim exercise, and evaluate these forecasts.
3 (10 %). Active participation: students are expected to regularly attend classes and participate actively in discussions.
As an alternative, students have the option of auditing. To get an audit, students have to attend the class regularly and complete a practical exercise, comparable to the interim practical exercise.
Macro for EconPol